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Market Recap
Risk sentiment soured overnight, leading to significant declines across major U.S. indices. The Nasdaq fell 1.6%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.8%, and the Dow Jones closed down 0.4%. Meanwhile, U.S. 10-year yields rose by 6 basis points to 3.86%, while crude oil prices increased by 1.4%, settling at $72.95 a barrel.
In the Forex market, the U.S. dollar strengthened as traders reacted to less dovish commentary from the Federal Reserve, promoting a slow and methodical approach to rate cuts. The AUD/USD pair settled at the lower end of its range at 0.6726, while the NZD/USD dipped to 0.6137. The EUR/USD fell back below 1.1130 and GBP/USD dropped under 1.3100, with USD/JPY trading at 146.20.
U.S. Weekly jobless claims data came in largely as expected, with initial claims matching forecasts at 232,000 and continuing claims slightly below expectations at 1.863 million. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for July printed at -0.34, down from -0.09, further indicating economic sluggishness. Despite this data, the USD gained traction across the board during the New York morning session, particularly against the AUD and EUR.
The U.S. Manufacturing PMI for August printed at 48.0, a decline from 49.6 and below expectations of 49.5. However, the Services PMI rose to 55.2 from 55.0, exceeding forecasts. The Composite PMI came in at 54.1, slightly down from 54.3 but above expectations of 53.2. In addition, July Existing Home Sales rose by 1.3% to 3.95 million, meeting forecasts, while EU Consumer Confidence fell short of expectations, declining to -13.4.
Day Ahead
Today is expected to be relatively quiet with limited data releases. The national CPI for Japan is anticipated to show a slowdown in core inflation (excluding fresh food and energy) to 2% year-over-year, down from 2.2%. This decline reflects a pick-up in the monthly rate following weaker prints in recent months, influenced by factors such as lower education fees. Strengthening wage growth and robust bonus payments in June are expected to support inflation levels.
For AUD/USD, trading has been constrained within a 0.6697 to 0.67525 range overnight, with key levels remaining intact. Offering interest is likely to emerge in the 0.6780/00 region, while demand is expected to rest ahead of 0.6600.
Economic Data to Watch
- JP – July National CPI
- CN – August Bloomberg Economic Survey
- EU – July ECB 1 & 3 Year CPI Expectations
- CA – June Retail Sales m/m
- US – July New Home Sales m/m
- US – August Kansas City Fed Services Activity
- UK – BOE Governor Andrew Bailey Speaks
Disclaimer: The information provided in this daily market update is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading Forex and CFDs involves significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. CA Markets does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and we recommend consulting with a qualified financial advisor before making any trading decisions. Users are solely responsible for their own trading activities and decisions.